According to CryptoQuant, a prominent on-chain data provider, Bitcoin’s price could skyrocket to $112,000 this year if the ongoing trend of inflows associated with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues. Since their launch nearly a month ago, spot bitcoin ETFs have amassed over 192,000 bitcoins as of Friday.
CEO Ki Young Ju provided insights into potential price targets, leveraging ETF inflows’ impact on bitcoin’s market capitalization and a key metric ratio historically indicating whether prices were “overvalued” or “undervalued.” Ki presented a “worse case” scenario, foreseeing Bitcoin reaching at least $55,000, constituting a nearly 15% surge from current levels.
Ki emphasized the significance of tracking the ratio between bitcoin’s market capitalization and realized capitalization, which evaluates active tokens at their last traded price. This ratio could serve as an indicator of a potential price peak for Bitcoin, ranging from $104,000 to $112,000, historically associated with a ratio of 3.9.
The substantial inflow of funds into spot bitcoin ETFs, totaling $9.5 billion monthly, carries the potential to bolster bitcoin’s realized capitalization by $114 billion annually. Despite outflows from funds like GBTC, Ki anticipates a net increase of $76 billion, lifting the realized cap from $451 billion to $527-565 billion.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have rapidly gained popularity among investors seeking exposure to bitcoin without direct acquisition and custody. Despite their brief existence of less than a month, these ETFs have attracted significant capital, indicating a growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency investment instruments.